Australia captain Pat Cummins says "it is less likely than likely" that he will be fit for the first Ashes Test in Perth next month. Reports in Australia last week said Cummins had been ruled out of the first Test and was a doubt for the remainder of the series. The 32-year-old has been struggling with a back stress injury and last played a competitive match in July. Though Cummins has resumed running, bowling is yet to feature in his rehabilitation.

"I wouldn't put a percentage on it, but I'd say probably less likely than likely, but I've still got a bit of time," said Cummins. "We get into bowling preparation I think next week, so probably a couple of weeks away before actually putting on the spikes and bowling out on turf. But it's been a good couple of weeks, each session feels better and better."

Australia Coach Andrew McDonald said on Friday that Cummins would likely need a minimum of four weeks of bowling preparation to have any chance of featuring in the first Test, which starts on 21 November. Cummins agreed, saying: "You'd want at least probably a month in the nets. If you play a Test match, you want to make sure you're right to bowl 20 overs in a day and you don't have to really think about it. So four weeks is pretty tight. But I think somewhere around that mark."

Given Cummins' timeframe, there is also no guarantee he will be fit for the second Test in Brisbane on 4 December. "The first step is trying to kind of give me a shot at being right, and then we'll work it out," said Cummins. Should Cummins miss the first Test, former skipper Steve Smith is likely to captain the side - with Scott Boland stepping in for Cummins in attack. Australia have held the urn since 2018, while England are without a Test win down under since 2011. England have their own doubts over captain Ben Stokes, who has been troubled with a shoulder injury since the Test series against India.

Cummins' injury concerns heading into this winter's Ashes could be a case of a career about to come full circle - but not in the way Australia's captain will have wanted. He made his Test debut as an 18-year-old in 2011 against South Africa, becoming the second-youngest player to take a five-wicket haul in an innings at that time, despite sustaining a heel injury during the match. But his explosive debut proved to be something of a false dawn. Cummins had to wait six years to make his second Test appearance as a young body failed to withstand the load of fast bowling, suffering repeated stress fractures to his lower back. Fast-forward 14 years, to the upcoming winter of 2025, and back problems have once again resurfaced, albeit this time as "lumbar bone stress" rather than a fracture. He has not bowled a ball since July.

If back injuries have plagued Cummins' Test career, periods of fitness have been filled with ebullient excellence as a thoroughbred quick. The 32-year-old, who was made Test captain in the wake of Tim Paine's resignation shortly before the 2021-22 Ashes, has taken 309 Test wickets at an average of 22.10. He is even more formidable in Australia, taking 177 wickets at 19.92, while he has also taken 91 wickets against England in just 19 matches. In the most recent Ashes series in 2023, Cummins played in all five Tests, one of only two bowlers to do so along with Stuart Broad, taking 18 wickets.

A talismanic leader, Cummins enjoyed a glorious 2023 as captain, taking six wickets in Australia's triumphant World Test Championship final and starring in their 50-over World Cup final victory in Ahmedabad - both against India. He is the only captain in Test history to win the World Test Championship, World Cup and an Ashes series.