06 Nov,2025
3 months ago
English clubs are making a significant impact in Europe, with five Premier League teams winning in a single round of this season's Champions League for the second time. Arsenal, Liverpool, Manchester City, Newcastle, and Tottenham all secured victories this week. The first four now occupy the top eight positions required for automatic qualification to the knockouts. Chelsea was the only team that failed to win, drawing 2-2 with Qarabag. However, they are still in a good position, sitting 12th at the halfway point of the group stage.
Before this season, no country had ever had five teams win in a single Champions League round. Now, English teams have achieved this feat twice. Spanish football journalist Guillem Balague told BBC Sport, "In five years' time we will look at this period of the next five years as the domination of England, I don't see it any other way. Bayern are doing really, really well and they can disrupt that. PSG will have their moments, I think Barcelona and Real Madrid are lagging behind, but there is nobody else."
Given this strong start, are English teams favored to win the Champions League? And how likely is a fourth all-English final? Arsenal aims to win the Champions League for the first time and has had a very encouraging start. They, along with Bayern Munich and Inter Milan, are the only teams with a perfect record, sitting joint top with 12 points from a possible 12. They have kept a clean sheet in each of their four games and scored 11 goals, a record surpassed only by Bayern Munich, Paris St-Germain (both 14), Borussia Dortmund (13), and Barcelona (12).
Collectively, English teams are outperforming others, winning 17 of their 24 games, scoring 56 goals (14 more than any others), and conceding just 17, a record bettered only by French teams, who have three clubs in the competition compared to England's six.
A significant factor in the success of English teams is their financial strength, which allows them to spend more on transfer fees and wages to attract top talent. TV rights have generated substantial broadcast revenues for Premier League sides, dwarfing those of other countries. This summer, Premier League clubs spent over £3bn in the transfer window, more than the combined spending of Bundesliga, La Liga, Ligue 1, and Serie A clubs.
More money allows clubs to invest in bigger squads. Arsenal is seeing the benefits of their spending, leading the Premier League and sitting joint-top in the Champions League standings. Balague added, "Obviously in a knockout competition anything can happen but in terms of money, talent, coaching, facilities and even the talent in the offices, England are the super league of Europe. I am not saying this perhaps with the jealousy of Spanish football in general, it is just a reflection of what is happening."
This is the first Champions League season with six clubs from one nation, and history will be made if all six English representatives advance. In 2017, Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester City, Manchester United, and Tottenham all progressed, making England the first country to have five teams in the knockouts. However, only Liverpool and Manchester City went beyond the last 16, with Liverpool reaching the final after defeating City in the quarter-finals, where they lost to Real Madrid.
According to Opta's predictions, Arsenal has a 99.8% chance of progressing to the knockouts, Manchester City 97.4%, and Liverpool 95.5%. The model is less confident about Newcastle (82%), Chelsea (80.8%), and Tottenham (72%).
Former Liverpool midfielder Stephen Warnock told BBC Sport, "I'd say at the moment it is [significant what English teams are doing], but it doesn't matter what goes on at the moment because we saw what happened last year, when Liverpool were dominating and finished top of the league stage - and then they were suddenly knocked out by PSG who had been rubbish up until then. So I just don't see at the moment, unless you get knocked out, what effect it is going to have and it does not mean the English teams are going to get through the knockout stages because it all depends on the draw, and how you are set up later in the competition."
Bayern Munich, led by Harry Kane, has a perfect record so far, scoring 14 goals (five by Kane) and conceding just three. The top eight slots are mostly occupied by the usual suspects, with Inter Milan, Paris St-Germain, and Real Madrid joining Bayern and the four English sides.
Azerbaijani side Qarabag held Chelsea to a draw and has seven points from four games, aiming for at least a play-off spot. Using last season's league phase format as a guide, around 16 points from eight games should be enough to finish in the top eight, requiring teams to win about five games, which Premier League sides are on track to do.
There is more leeway to secure a play-off place (ninth to 24th). Last season, Club Brugge secured the final qualifying spot with just three wins and 11 points. Opta predictions give Arsenal a 23.4% chance of winning the Champions League, with Manchester City at 12.5% and Liverpool at 11.3%.
Former Everton midfielder Leon Osman believes the true test will come in the knockouts. He said, "It is great [what English teams are currently doing], but it is only when you then get to the knockout stages, where it is literally one team through and one going home, that is the true test and that is when the big-hitters turn up."
Osman added that Premier League teams may be finding the right balance between domestic and international competition. "We have probably expected this [dominance] for years, but it hasn't quite materialised before," he said. "Maybe that is down to the competitiveness of the Premier League, which makes it hard to combine the two, but maybe this year, they are starting to get the balance right."
Of the 31 seasons with at least one English side in the Champions League, 16 have seen every Premier League representative progress beyond the group stage, resulting in 11 final appearances from English sides, with all-English finals in 2007-08, 2018-19, and 2020-21. According to Opta predictions, the most likely final at this stage would be between an English and German side, with Arsenal (38.8%) and Bayern Munich (27.3%) being the favorites.