It had seemed like Arsenal were starting to wobble. After starting December with defeat by Aston Villa, they were far from convincing as they beat Wolves, Everton and Brighton by narrow margins. But the Gunners ground out vital results and they answered any lingering doubts over their title credentials with an emphatic 4-1 home victory over Villa on Tuesday. It not only kept Unai Emery's in-form side at bay in third place, it served as a powerful statement to any team hoping to derail their trophy ambitions.

Arsenal head into 2026, and the second half of the campaign, at the top of the league - five points clear of second-placed Manchester City, with Villa a further point behind. "Arsenal doing what they did to Villa tells you where they are," former Aston Villa striker Dion Dublin told BBC Radio 5 Live. "It's all going right for them because everyone is contributing - the manager, the players, the staff."

Speaking on Match of the Day, ex-England midfielder Danny Murphy added: "Arsenal's performance was a big statement. It was powerful, full of quality and showed their strength in depth." But, with a history of letting the title slip from their grasp following three successive runners-up finishes, can Arsenal finally make it count this season and be champions for the first time since 2004?

Arsenal have been here before. They entered 2023 in top spot, five points above Manchester City. But the tables turned and Pep Guardiola's side were the ones holding the trophy at the end of the season after finishing five points clear of the Gunners. It was a similar story in the 2002-03 season, when they finished five points behind Manchester United having been top at the end of December. In fact, of the previous six occasions Arsenal have ended the calendar year in first place, they have only gone on to win the Premier League once - back in 2001-02.

There is good reason, therefore, why their fans are cautious about getting ahead of themselves and celebrating too early. "It's understandable - they've gone nearly 22 years without a league title," ex-Liverpool defender Jamie Carragher said on Sky Sports. "But the time to get really nervous is April and May, not now. There's a long way to go."

The team that has been top of the table at the end of the calendar year has gone on to win the Premier League that season on 17 out of 33 occasions (52%). But are things finally clicking into place for the Gunners, who last won the title in their 'invincible' season? Boss Mikel Arteta told BBC Sport: "We know how long this is going to be. It's been an incredible 2025. We know what we want from 2026, we're going to have to earn it and we're still a long way away."

The Villa success was the first time since 8 November that Gabriel and William Saliba had started a game at centre-back together. Even with their star defensive duo sidelined, Arsenal had the tightest defence in the league, conceding just 12 goals in 19 games - the lowest of any team. Against Villa, the pair put in another solid display in a goalless first half before Brazilian Gabriel started the goal-fest, scoring a scrappy goal three minutes after the restart.

"Arsenal don't panic - they trust their defenders to play one and one, and to cope," ex-Liverpool midfielder Danny Murphy told BBC Sport. "The partnership back together, Saliba and Gabriel, gave them the platform to produce that second-half display. That is what you get from those two, the athleticism, the calmness and the fear factor."

But, as Arteta said, there is a "long way" to go - and both City and Villa remain hot on Arsenal's tails. Guardiola's side, who have pipped the Gunners to the Premier League trophy on two occasions since Arteta took over in 2019, will move back within two points if they win at Sunderland on Thursday. Villa, meanwhile, had been on an impressive 11-match winning streak before their trip to the Emirates, and boss Emery will hope the defeat was just a blip.

"It's a huge result for them in lots of ways," added Carragher in praise of Arsenal. "The calibre of the opposition, the first time Arsenal have beaten a real rival this season, the manner of the victory and second-half performance. They completely demolished Aston Villa.