Australia have confirmed captain Pat Cummins will not be fit for the first Ashes Test, with Steve Smith set to lead the side in his absence. Talismanic fast bowler Cummins has been suffering with a back injury and said earlier this month he was "less than likely" to feature in the first Test in Perth on 21 November.

Although the 32-year-old has "run out of time" for the series opener, he is returning to bowling in the nets this week and head coach Andrew McDonald said he was "really optimistic" Cummins would be available for the second Test in Brisbane starting 4 December.

"We've grappled with it for a little while, and the nature of the injury is that you grapple with it day-by-day," McDonald said. "We're really optimistic and hopeful for the second Test match. He'll be back bowling this week, that's a huge step."

It is a huge blow for Australia to lose their influential captain and premier fast bowler. Reports of fitness doubts first appeared in September, with Cummins then ruled out of the white-ball series against New Zealand and India with a lumbar stress fracture.

Speaking two weeks ago, Cummins said time was beginning to get "tight" for the first Test, because he needed at least a month in the nets in order to be match-fit. Cummins was appointed captain on the eve of the last Ashes series in Australia in 2021-22. The home side won 4-0 despite Cummins missing the second Test because of a Covid scare. He led Australia to win the World Test Championship and World Cup in 2023, the same year the Ashes series in the UK was drawn 2-2.

In terms of the captaincy, Smith is a more than able replacement. The 36-year-old is himself an Ashes-winning skipper and only lost the captaincy in 2018 because of the 'sandpapergate' ball-tampering scandal. The batter, one of the all-time great Ashes run-scorers, has stood in for Cummins as captain on six previous occasions.

Cummins's place in the bowling attack is likely to go to Scott Boland, who has a peerless average of 12.63 in Test in Australia. Boland, 36, is likely to join Mitchell Starc and Josh Hazlewood, both also in their mid-30s, in a seam attack for a gruelling five-Test series crammed into just over seven weeks.

"Losing your captain is not ideal, but when you're talking about Scott Boland as a potential replacement, it's not a bad position to be in," McDonald said. With or without Cummins, Australia are likely to have to call on some inexperienced or untried reserves like Michael Neser, Brendan Doggett, or Fergus O'Neill, although McDonald has not ruled out a Test return for Mitchell Marsh. Australia's white-ball captain, who earned the most recent of his 46 caps last December, averages 28.5 with the bat and 40.4 with the ball in Tests.

"We would be comfortable picking someone, and if you want to put a name to it Mitch Marsh, out of white-ball cricket, if we felt like that was going to benefit the Test team," said McDonald. "We feel he's batting as well as he has for a long period of time. We still haven't given up on Mitch Marsh's Test career."

The question over what involvement Cummins may have and the bowlers Australia could use fuels the suspicion that pace bowling will be a determining factor in the eventual Ashes winners. England have named a battery of quick bowlers in their squad, probably the most hostile group they have sent down under since 1970. There are questions over some members of the attack. Mark Wood has not played a Test since August of last year, Jofra Archer has a long injury history, while all of Gus Atkinson, Brydon Carse and Josh Tongue have had lay-offs in the past year.

England's Ashes squad is slowly assembling, with many in the side beaten by New Zealand in the opening one-day international on Sunday. Others, like Wood and Tongue, are not part of the New Zealand series but are in the country as part of their preparations. Captain Ben Stokes is one of the later members to travel after spending time with the England rugby league team before their first Ashes Test against Australia on Saturday. Stokes has not played since July because of a shoulder injury, yet is thought to be on course for the first Ashes Test.

England play their only warm-up match, against an England Lions team, in Perth on 13 November. All-rounder Stokes has not played a full part in any of England's past four Test series because of a variety of injuries. It could be the Ashes is ultimately decided by which of captains Cummins and Stokes is able to spend most time on the field.