In some ways we have been here before. The common view was England had to win in Perth. Having failed to do so, they had to win in Brisbane, given they have never won an Ashes series from 2-0 down. Defeat at the Gabba left only the keenest optimists holding on to the faintest hope. Most of that is only for the series to remain alive for another week. But this, a Thursday in Adelaide, really is it.

Play well - and by well we mean take the final two Australian wickets quickly before batting all day - and Ben Stokes' side have the chance to control the rest of this match. You can forget about your cricketing Christmas if England are not still batting when the UK wakes up for breakfast on Thursday but that's not the only failing they must correct to prevent 18 December 2025 being the day Bazball finally died...

England's first task on day two is to quickly end the Australian innings - a task rarely their specialty. In the 2023-25 World Test Championship cycle, England's bowlers were the sixth-worst team at removing the tail and that trend continued in the second Test in Brisbane where Mitchell Starc's 77 helped Australia extend their innings from 383-7 to 511 all out. From there, defeat was inevitable. Starc remains again in Adelaide, unbeaten on 33, and Thursday's forecast - which predicts Adelaide to be hotter than Western Sahara - only reinforces the importance in a swift England exit from the field.

Every minute saved will be respite for England's bowlers, inflicting Australia to the worst of the searing South Australian heat. There is no better time for Josh Tongue, recalled for his first match of the series, to remind just why he gained the nickname The Mop. They will also be helped by a ball still just three overs old. Time, too, for Jofra Archer to take the two wickets needed to claim his first five-wicket haul in Tests for six years.

England have pointed to the 2023 Ashes series, where they fell 2-0 down before fighting back to draw 2-2, as evidence for why fans should still have faith. In the third Test of that contest, at Headingley, England conceded a first-innings deficit but roared back to win in a run chase. Attempting a repeat in Adelaide, where there has been one successful chase over 200 in 43 years, would surely have a different outcome.

With the pitch set to take spin later but good for now, first-innings runs are critical. Australia were generous in gifting some of their dismissals on day one and England cannot fail to take advantage. "I firmly believe on that pitch, which is a very good batting pitch, 450-500 is going to win you the Test match," said former England spinner Graeme Swann on TNT Sports. "England have bowled themselves into a position where they will bat on days two and three, which are the best batting days on this pitch."

Speaking on BBC Test Match Special, former England captain Michael Vaughan added: "Bat the whole day tomorrow. Roast Australia in the heat of the Adelaide Oval. They are going to need a first-innings lead. Batting last on that wicket is not going to be easy." However, batting long was England's biggest problem in the first two Tests of this series. They managed only 67.3 overs across both innings of the first Test combined and did not survive long enough for Australia to require a second new ball in either innings of the second.

Harry Brook has admitted playing "shocking" shots. Now is the chance to show he really has learned. Zak Crawley and Ollie Pope are on their last drink in last chance saloon. England must first repeat what they achieved for the first time this series in the second innings in Brisbane, surviving the opening over from left-armer Starc, before an entirely different prospect follows.

Having been a second-string in the first two Tests, Australia's bowling attack is back to near full strength with captain Pat Cummins fit again and spinner Nathan Lyon recalled. No bowler has taken more than Lyon's 63 wickets at the Adelaide Oval - a ground he knows from his 15 Tests but also his time working on the groundstaff. Lyon's old boss is still the curator in Adelaide. Even more reason to score your runs before the ball turns big.

"England are going to have to go big because the main difference is Nathan Lyon," said former Australia opener Justin Langer on TNT Sports. "Even [England spinner] Will Jacks got a few to spin but it's going to be 40 degrees tomorrow and will start spinning so England have to capitalise on this very flat wicket. England have to be thinking they'll only bat once, it's that flat a wicket. I didn't see a ball swing or seam all day. This is a batting paradise." Is that hope? Ask again on Thursday morning...