Nicolas Jackson spent the 2025-26 season on loan at Bayern Munich Aston Villa have completed the signing of Nicolas Jackson in a deal worth up to £65m, with Ollie Watkins looking set to join Saudi Pro League side Al-Hilal.

Unai Emery's Villa are undergoing a major overhaul this summer, with key players including Morgan Rogers, Ezri Konsa, Youri Tielemans and Lucas Digne having already departed.

Jackson, 25, joins a number of new additions including Johan Manzambi, Joao Gomes, Zion Suzuki and Matteo Ruggeri. That level of squad disruption was evident on the opening weekend, when Emery's side slumped to a 4-0 defeat at Brighton.

With Watkins, 30, unavailable and both Tammy Abraham and 17-year-old Brian Madjo injured, Villa started without a recognised centre-forward - Emiliano Buendia led the line.

The arrival of Jackson - who overtakes Manzambi to become Villa's record signing - from Chelsea gives Emery a specialist striker to work with. It also looks set to coincide with the end of Watkins' six-year spell at Villa, during which he scored 108 goals in 278 games and became one of the defining players of the rise under Emery.

However, the stats suggest Jackson is not just a like-for-like replacement for the England international - he is a different type of number nine. On the surface, Jackson's numbers at Bayern Munich last season compare favourably with those of Watkins at Villa.

The Senegal forward scored 11 goals and provided three assists in 1,320 minutes across all competitions, averaging 1.0 goal involvements per 90 minutes. Watkins recorded 21 goals and five assists in 3,837 minutes, an average of 0.6 per 90. Jackson also generated more attacking opportunities.

He averaged 3.8 shots per 90 compared with Watkins' 2.6, and 2.2 shots on target to 1.2. His expected-goals (xG) figure was also higher, at 0.7 per 90 compared with 0.5, while he averaged 8.5 touches in the opposition box to Watkins' 5.6.

That fits a pattern which predates his spell in Germany. Among players with at least 5,000 Premier League minutes since January 2020, only Erling Haaland has registered a higher non-penalty xG figure per 90 than Jackson's 0.55.

Getting into scoring positions has rarely been Jackson's main problem - it is his ability to finish chances which has attracted scrutiny. During his two Premier League seasons with Chelsea, he scored 14 goals from 18.7 xG in 2023-24 and 10 from 12.3 xG the following campaign.

Jackson has converted 18 of 61 big chances in England so far, although Watkins has also missed plenty of high-value opportunities (scoring 24 of 73 since joining Villa in 2020). Interestingly, last season's numbers suggest the gap between them was negligible.

Jackson converted 19.6% of his shots and 40.9% of his big chances, compared with 18.9% and 43.2% respectively for Watkins. There is, however, an important caveat. Watkins started 43 matches and played almost three times as many minutes.

Jackson started only 15 of his 34 appearances, and Opta says his relatively limited, substitute-heavy sample could make some of his per-90 figures look stronger than they might over a full season.

Both players were predominantly used as centre-forwards last season, making the comparison reasonably fair. Watkins played 100% of his 3,837 minutes as a striker, with 92% coming as the central striker in Villa's 4-2-3-1. Jackson spent 95% of his 1,320 minutes up front, with the remaining 5% on the left. At Bayern, 86% of his playing time came as the striker in a 4-2-3-1.

The similarity largely ends there. Jackson averaged 46.6 open-play touches per 90, compared with Watkins' 29.5, and completed almost twice as many passes - 24 per 90 to Watkins' 11.6. He was also considerably more involved in creating and progressing attacks.

• Jackson averaged: 1.6 shot-ending carries per 90, compared with Watkins' 0.8
• 1.6 successful take-ons per 90, compared with 0.82
• 2.5 passes into the penalty area per 90, compared with 0.7.

Opta's touch maps reinforce the difference. Watkins' involvement was concentrated more heavily around the centre of the final third and penalty area, while Jackson received possession across a wider range of attacking zones.

Among a sample of 1,577 top-five European league strikers over the past 10 seasons, Jackson ranked in the 85th percentile for chances created, 77th for progressive carries and 73rd for touches. Watkins ranked in the 28th, 53rd and eighth percentiles respectively.

That points towards Villa moving from a relatively low-touch focal point to a forward who is more comfortable becoming involved in attacks earlier.

There is another possible difference when Villa lose possession. Jackson averaged 34 high pressures per 90, slightly above Watkins' 31.4, but the distinction becomes clearer in where possession was recovered.

Jackson won the ball 2.7 times per 90, compared with Watkins' 1.8, and regained it in the final third 0.9 times per 90 to Watkins' 0.6. His percentile for possession won in the attacking third was 88th among the Opta striker sample, compared with Watkins' 43rd.

The two were almost identical for runs in behind, Jackson averaging 13 per 90 and Watkins 12.7, although the Englishman made slightly more runs which finished inside the penalty area.

Watkins also offered more aerially, winning 1.2 aerial duels per 90 compared with Jackson's 0.7, and carried the ball more directly towards goal. So Jackson would not necessarily reproduce every aspect of the player he is replacing.

Villa's interest also comes with an element of familiarity. Emery worked with Jackson at Villarreal, where the forward made 27 appearances under him, scoring three goals and providing three assists in 1,195 minutes.

Jackson has subsequently credited Emery with transforming his understanding of the game. "Unai taught me everything about football," he said, Jackson has explained that, when he arrived from Senegal, he possessed natural dribbling ability but had much less understanding of how and when to move.

Emery helped turn that instinctive talent into a more structured game. Jackson's development accelerated after Emery left Villarreal. During the 2022-23 La Liga season he produced 0.56 non-penalty xG plus xA per 90, a rate bettered by only seven players with at least 1,500 minutes, all representing Barcelona, Real Madrid or Atletico Madrid.

Unai Emery previously worked with Nicolas Jackson at Villarreal Jackson's ability to carry the ball was already evident too. Ten of his league goal involvements followed carries, fewer only than Vinicius Jr, despite Jackson playing substantially fewer minutes.

Chelsea subsequently signed him in 2023. He scored 30 goals and supplied 12 assists in 81 appearances for the club before spending last season on loan at Bayern.

His time in Munich was complicated by circumstances rather than simply performance. Bayern's obligation to buy would have been triggered if he reached a demanding appearance threshold, but Harry Kane remained fit and prolific, while the displays of Luis Diaz and Michael Olise limited opportunities elsewhere across the frontline.

Jackson still produced 11 goals across all competitions, and only Kane recorded a better rate of open-play Bundesliga goals per 90. Bayern coach Vincent Kompany publicly defended him when criticism resurfaced, pointing to the quality of the forwards ahead of him and saying Jackson had trained and performed well.

Watkins has provided Villa with reliability, running power and goals throughout one of the club's most successful periods of the modern era. Jackson arrives with a different profile.

He is five years younger, gets more touches, carries the ball more frequently, creates more for others and, in limited minutes last season, generated shots and high-quality chances at an impressive rate.

There remain questions around whether those per-90 numbers would survive a heavier workload, while his finishing record at Chelsea explains why doubts have followed him.

But Villa are not buying an unknown quantity. Emery has coached Jackson before, knows the qualities he wants to develop and would be replacing a 30-year-old striker with a 25-year-old whose underlying numbers suggest there may still be considerable room to improve.

If Jackson joins and Watkins does depart, the Europa League winners will be doing more than just changing their centre-forwards. They will be changing the way their number nine plays.

Follow Aston Villa on BBC Sounds Pre-match, post-match and topical Villa content Subscribe and listen for everything you love about Villa Watkins apologised for refusing to play - Emery Will a Premier League club break record for transfer sales in one window? Ipswich move to take Villa's Abraham on loan