Who will win the Champions League this season? Thirty-two teams have fallen in this season's Champions League and just four remain. So who will become the kings of Europe? Paris St-Germain are hoping to retain the trophy they won for the first time last season. Arsenal and Atletico Madrid are aiming to become first-time champions of Europe. Bayern Munich are out to win the competition for a seventh time, and a first since 2020. One of them will lift the Champions League trophy at Budapest's Puskas Arena.

To figure out who, BBC Sport takes a look at what the statistics suggest, while experts have their say and make predictions. Of the four Champions League semi-finalists, Arsenal and Atletico Madrid have never won the trophy, while Paris St-Germain lifted it for the first time last season. If form in this season's Champions League was the benchmark, then Arsenal would be home and dry with 10 victories and two draws in 12 games - and they beat Bayern in November.

But the Gunners have not been in a final since 2006 - when they were beaten by Barcelona in Paris - and competition pedigree plays a role in the Champions League. The north Londoners finished top of the league phase and had been handed a favourable path to Budapest as a result, with wins over Bayer Leverkusen and Sporting in previous rounds.

Just three of the previous 20 champions have been first-time winners - making it even more of an uphill task for Mikel Arteta's side. The Gunners will take on a resurgent Atletico Madrid, who are the surprise package in this year's competition. Many predicted Diego Simeone's side would be sent packing by Spanish rivals Barcelona in the last eight, but the three-time finalists are back to their gritty best in this competition.

Atletico are way off the pace in the La Liga title race and recently had their hearts broken in the Copa del Rey final by Real Sociedad. But in Julian Alvarez, Atleti have hope. The Argentine striker has netted nine times and registered four assists in 13 matches, making him the key for the Spaniards to reach the final.

Bayern Munich have already tied up the Bundesliga title and are purring under Vincent Kompany this season. Bayern's attack was in fine form as they beat Real Madrid 6-4 on aggregate in a thrilling quarter-final. That took their European tally to 38 goals in 12 games - the best in the Champions League this season. England captain Harry Kane has been at the forefront of everything special at Bayern. He looks to add to his 12 goals, while aided by game-changing widemen Luis Diaz and Michael Olise. The six-time winners know more than most what it takes to lift this trophy.

And that leaves us with the holders, PSG. The Parisians finally broke their Champions League hoodoo in May 2025 with a 5-0 win over Inter Milan - the biggest winning margin in a final. Like last season, Luis Enrique's side had to come through a play-off to reach the knockout stages. But, also like last term, they have dispatched of two English sides in Chelsea and Liverpool. A 4-0 aggregate victory over the Premier League champions proves PSG are at their frightening best and now have the experience to boot.

European football expert Guillem Balague: I think Arsenal will beat Atletico Madrid in the semi-final. They will probably be two tight games as both teams have a little bit of difficulty against teams who are compact at the back. Atletico actually do attack better than they used to but they are up against the best defence in Europe. PSG have got more than Bayern Munich in terms of momentum. They are finding form at the best time and I saw weaknesses in Bayern in those last-eight games against Real Madrid. So I think it will be PSG against Arsenal in the final and PSG will clearly be favourites. But if Arsenal shake off the pressure and the mental tiredness that seems to be making it harder, they could feel they have nothing to lose by then. PSG would have more to lose by then I think, so I have this impression that Arsenal could release this demon they have inside and they could win it.

BBC Sport Arsenal reporter Alex Howell: Arsenal are a different team in Europe than the one you see in the Premier League. The Gunners play with more freedom and some of their best performances this season have come in the competition. They have beaten Bayern Munich and Atletico Madrid already and that will give them confidence before the tie against Diego Simeone's Spanish side.

However, Arsenal are not in great form right now and they had to battle to get past Sporting in the quarter-final. Arsenal also know that facing a team you have already beaten means nothing, after losing to PSG in the semi-final last season having beaten them in the league phase. I fancy Arsenal to get past Atletico though, but winning the Champions League will depend on whether they have clinched the Premier League title a week beforehand. If the Gunners have been pipped to the title then I think it will be too much to pick themselves up again after such a disappointment.

French football journalist Sara Menai: What I don't see is PSG winning the Champions League back-to-back. It was really something special last season - I don't see that special ingredient this year. They're having a much more difficult season on the domestic side of things. They don't have the depth in the squad nor the quality to do it. I think Bayern are the favourites. I can't see who will be able to stop them this year. I think they could trip PSG up this week and I can't see Atletico or Arsenal beating that team. Arsenal have got too much on their plate - reaching the final doesn't seem possible for them.

German football journalist Taufig Khalil: I think it's Bayern's year. I said if they survive Real Madrid then they're ready to go for the Champions League. For me Kane is the captain on the pitch, he is the true leader of that team. It's how he shows his presence in the box, how he shows his presence in the midfield, how he opens the game, and it's how he reacts towards the media. Kane is talking like a real leader - I call him King Harry! For me he makes the difference. If Bayern make it to the final then they will win the Champions League. If it's not Bayern then it will be PSG.

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Watch highlights of every Champions League game from 22:00 on Wednesday on BBC iPlayer and the BBC Sport website and app.

There will also be a Champions League Match of the Day on BBC One on Wednesday, from 22:40 to 00:00.

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