Tottenham and West Ham have both enjoyed European success in the past three years. The stakes could not be higher for Tottenham and West Ham on the final day of the Premier League season. While both go into Sunday's games with a chance of being relegated, the odds of top-flight survival are heavily weighted in Tottenham's favour.

Roberto de Zerbi's side are a place and two points better off in the table than West Ham and they also have a much superior goal difference. Tottenham welcome Everton and West Ham host Leeds on Sunday - and only one outcome from the nine permutations will see the Hammers avoid the drop. Tottenham have to lose and West Ham win for the Hammers to leapfrog their London rivals and escape relegation.

It is 14 seasons since West Ham were outside the Premier League, while Tottenham have only spent one season (1977-78) outside the top flight since 1950. Both have enjoyed European success in the past three years, with West Ham lifting the Conference League trophy in 2023 and Spurs winning the Europa League 12 months ago. Yet both clubs are now in unthinkable situations, with one of the two set to pay a huge price for poor boardroom decisions, managerial churn and recruitment mistakes.

The crucial split-second call that could deny Spurs safety. Tottenham finished 17th 12 months ago, but were never really in danger of relegation as then-boss Ange Postecoglou juggled an injury-hit squad with a focus on Europe. However, they have endured a truly disastrous campaign this time around, once again not helped by a lengthy injury list.

Their season has encompassed three head coaches and multiple unwanted records, including losing six games in a row for the first time in their history and going on a 15-game winless run in the league. Thomas Frank, who succeeded Postecoglou last June, was dismissed in February. His replacement Igor Tudor's reign was a new nadir, with the club collecting just one Premier League point from a possible 15 before his 44-day tenure was brought to an end.

De Zerbi then took on the unenviable task of ending their tailspin. Draws against Brighton and Leeds that bookended wins over Wolves and Aston Villa provided light at the end of the tunnel, and they are now on course to escape - unless there is a dramatic plot twist.

Speaking to BBC Match of the Day, former Tottenham midfielder Danny Murphy said: "The mentality at Tottenham has to be, four or five weeks ago we were written off. If you'd said to Tottenham fans and players it's going to go down to the last day and you've got to get a draw or a win at home to Everton, they would have bitten your hand off."

"The dilemma you have when you know a draw will suffice is that plays on your mind, and you really can't let it. They're at home against an Everton side who have petered out a little bit at the end of the season, they've got to be on the front foot and try to win the game, rather than be cautious and protective of that 0-0."

The possible consequences of relegation do not bear thinking about for supporters, but will surely include a mass exodus of big-name players. Dejan Kulusevski, Guglielmo Vicario, Cristian Romero, Micky van de Ven, Xavi Simons and James Maddison would all likely consider their options, while youngsters Archie Gray and Lucas Bergvall are also attracting admiring glances from elsewhere.

West Ham's journey to the precipice can be traced back even further, to the departure of David Moyes in 2024. Coincidentally, the man who delivered their second major European trophy could yet come to their rescue on Sunday. After his departure the Hammers lurched from Julen Lopetegui to Graham Potter in the search for a more expansive style, neither lasting as long as nine months at the helm.

While the early-season arrival of Nuno Espirito Santo has made them more competitive, a dreadful run between 22 November and 17 January, when they accumulated just four points from 30 available, could yet be their undoing.

Having already posted a £104.2m loss for the last financial year, relegation would heap yet more pressure on the club's shaky finances. One obvious solution is selling key assets. Portugal midfielder Mateus Fernandes has already been linked with Manchester United in the media. The likes of Crysencio Summerville and captain Jarrod Bowen could also potentially command sizable fees to help the club out of a hole. But just how far would a fire sale go?

Given Tottenham reached the last 16 of the Champions League this term and ranked ninth in the Deloitte Money League survey for the world's richest clubs, it would be a spectacular and calamitous fall from grace if they were to start next term in English football's second tier.

It would also come amid a period of continued supporter unrest, with groups like Change for Tottenham unhappy with the club's perceived misguided approach to transfers, and the appointment of Tudor. Broadcast, matchday and commercial incomes would all be squeezed, while the most recent wage bill sat at about £254m, as opposed to the Championship average of £38m.

There would also be a knock-on effect on transfers, not only in the quality of players the club could attract but also in paying off £337m in outstanding instalments for current players. BBC Sport's own analysis points to an estimated fall in annual revenue of about £261m with football finance expert Kieran Maguire outlining the significant financial hit.

"In 2023-24, Spurs generated an average of £84 per supporter per match, the highest figure in the Premier League," Maguire said. "That figure would face significant downward pressure, not from the size of the crowd, but from what clubs can realistically charge. Corporate clients who pay a premium for a home fixture against Liverpool or Arsenal are unlikely to pay the same for a visit from Swansea."

Maguire also stressed that shirt sponsorships and kit deals would also be impacted, adding: "For a club of Spurs' ambitions and financial scale, relegation would not simply be a short-term sporting setback. The economics of English football make recovery a multi-year project."

Relegation would be no less consequential for West Ham. Instead of trips to Old Trafford, Anfield and the Emirates, they face visits to the likes of Lincoln City's 10,669-seater LNER Community Stadium. Maguire expects demotion to bring a £100m revenue loss for the Hammers and potential job losses.

"Last season West Ham generated £228m, of which £133m was from broadcasting, but that could fall to about £48m even with parachute payments and they will find it difficult to charge premium prices to sponsors and matchday fans."

A wage bill which dwarfs most Championship clubs is also a major concern. "Championship wages averaged £37m in 2025. West Ham's was well over four times that figure and averaged £75,000 per week [per player]," Maguire added.

Their 62,500-seater ground, while an asset in the Premier League, could be a burden in the Championship. "The cost of renting the stadium, which was about £4m in 2024-25, may fall if there is a relegation clause. But it is a large venue, so maintenance and general overheads will be substantial."

There is also the bizarre situation that may mean London taxpayers have to pay an extra £2.5m if the Hammers go down, because of the terms of their lease agreement for London Stadium.

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